NFL Divisional Round Predictions — Who Advances to Championship Weekend

WOW, these first-round playoffs were absolutely incredible. The drama, the fun, the craziness — everything was exciting. I honestly could not believe what happened. I can proudly say that with my predictions from the first round going into the Divisional Round, I went five out of six on my matchups. I was right about almost every single prediction, and that is always exciting.

But now, we’re here at the Divisional Round, and the first matchup we’re talking about is the Chicago Bears vs. the Los Angeles Rams. This is going to be a matchup of the ages. Chicago pulled out a thriller against Green Bay, 31–27, and now they are back home facing a tough Rams team that is loaded with experience and confidence.

What’s interesting is that Matthew Stafford and Caleb Williams actually have something in common. In the first round of the playoffs, both quarterbacks threw at least one interception. Caleb Williams threw two interceptions, while Stafford also threw one interception. That alone makes this matchup fascinating, because it shows that neither quarterback played a perfect game — yet both teams still found a way to win.

This game, in my opinion, is going to come down to the Bears’ defense. Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua had a field day against the Carolina Panthers. Nacua finished with 10 receptions for 111 yards and a touchdown, and he was simply everywhere on the field. If the Bears cannot slow down Puka Nacua, they will lose this game — it really is that simple.

Now, to be fair, Nacua did cool off a bit in the second half. That could have been due to Stafford not fully trusting him later in the game, or Carolina adjusting defensively, but the damage was already done. Stafford finished with 304 passing yards on 24-for-42 passing, which is roughly a 57% completion percentage. That is not elite efficiency, and he threw the ball 42 times in a game the Rams barely won. That matters.

On top of that, Davante Adams had a solid game with five receptions for 72 yards, and even though the run game wasn’t dominant, it was effective enough. Kyren Williams rushed 13 times for 57 yards, and Blake Corum added 11 carries for 45 yards. Neither player took over the game, but if that rushing attack becomes more consistent, it puts even more pressure on the Bears’ defense.

Defensively, the Rams are no joke. Braden Fiske, Kobie Turner, Jared Verse, and Byron Young give Los Angeles a disruptive front that can collapse the pocket quickly. Add in Roger McCreary on the back end, and this defense is capable of forcing mistakes — especially against a 2nd year quarterback.

As much as I love the Bears, this is where I start to worry. Caleb Williams finished 24-for-48 against Green Bay, completing only about 50% of his passes. Yes, he threw for 361 yards and two touchdowns, but the two interceptions are concerning. If Caleb throws two interceptions against this Rams defense, the game will likely be over. This is not a team you can afford to give extra possessions to.

The Rams also watched Colston Loveland go off for eight receptions and 137 yards, and you can bet that they will make him a focal point of their defensive game plan. DJ Moore had a solid game with six receptions for 64 yards and a touchdown, but if the Rams can limit Loveland and Moore, it becomes very difficult to trust the rest of the Bears’ offense consistently.

Defensively, Chicago has issues of its own. Jaylon Johnson is going to be asked to lock in against either Puka Nacua or Davante Adams, and that is a tall task. He was burned at times against Green Bay by receivers like Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs. Kyler Gordon also struggled, and now both corners are facing even tougher matchups. Add in injuries across the defense, and it becomes hard to fully trust this unit.

I also don’t know if Montez Sweat can consistently get to Matthew Stafford. If Stafford is given time, he will pick this defense apart.

That said, while I do believe the Los Angeles Rams will win this game, I do not think it will be a blowout. The Chicago Bears have already proven that they can fight back no matter how far they are down. They showed resilience, toughness, and belief against Green Bay, and that matters in the playoffs.

This will be a close game, much closer than people expect. But when it comes down to experience, execution, and defensive pressure, I trust the Rams just a little bit more. Los Angeles survives a tight battle and moves on, but Chicago makes them earn every single yard.

WOW, the Divisional Round is officially heating up, and right after that Bears vs. Rams thriller, the NFC West takes center stage. We’ve got Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers, a rivalry that never sleeps and a matchup that has everything: injuries, star players, X-factors, and playoff intensity. This one is going to be physical, strategic, and absolutely electric from the first snap.

Let’s start with Seattle. Their quarterback situation is a little shaky — Sam Darnold is questionable with a minor oblique, but all signs point to him playing. And this is one of those games where he doesn’t need to put up historic stats — he just needs to manage the game, make smart throws, and let his playmakers do the heavy lifting. That’s exactly what Seattle wants him to do.

Speaking of playmakers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the key. This kid has been absolutely electric all season, turning short passes into first-downs and explosive gains. Against a 49ers secondary that is missing Fred Warner, their defensive quarterback on the field, JSN could have a field day. Warner’s absence changes everything — the linebackers now have to communicate and adjust on the fly, and the defensive backfield loses direction. That’s a massive advantage for Seattle, and if JSN gets rolling early, it could set the tone for the entire game.

Seattle’s rushing attack is also a huge factor. Kenneth Walker III has been grinding all season, showing the ability to break tackles and keep defenses honest. Zach Charbonnet adds a complementary dynamic, capable of punishing a front seven and keeping the 49ers guessing. The balance between run and pass is crucial — if San Francisco focuses too much on Walker, JSN finds space. If they overcommit to stopping JSN, Charbonnet and Walker can chew up the middle. It’s a classic “pick your poison” scenario.

Defensively, Seattle doesn’t need to be flashy — they just need to be disciplined and opportunistic. Leonard Williamsand DeMarcus Lawrence bring constant pressure off the edges, while Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen lock down coverage. Seattle’s defense thrives when they can disrupt timing, force quick reads, and make the 49ers uncomfortable. Every sack, every pass deflection, every tackle for loss counts — and that’s exactly how playoff games are won.

Now let’s talk about San Francisco. Even with Fred Warner out, they still have Christian McCaffrey, one of the most dynamic players in football. He can turn a single play into a 50-yard gain, and he’s going to need to do a lot of heavy lifting for this offense. If McCaffrey gets going early, he can control tempo, sustain drives, and keep Seattle off balance. But the 49ers have holes — WRs Ricky Pearsall and Jacob Cowing are questionable, and if they’re limited, McCaffrey will be the centerpiece of every drive. The offensive line has to hold up against Seattle’s pass rush, or this game could spiral fast.

Brock Purdy will have to be able to handle a Seattle front that is aggressive and fast, capable of pressuring the pocket while maintaining coverage discipline. If the 49ers’ QB can’t process quickly or holds the ball too long, Seattle’s edge rushers are going to make him pay. And with WR depth thin, every throw is under pressure.

Here’s where the matchup gets even juicier. Seattle’s secondary will be tested by McCaffrey’s route-running and the 49ers’ remaining WRs. Coverage will be tight, and every misstep could result in a big play. This is where Darnold’s timing with JSN matters. If Seattle can convert third downs and sustain drives, they control tempo. If they can mix in Walker and Charbonnet effectively, the 49ers have to stretch their defense thin, creating even more opportunities for JSN and Darnold.

Special teams and turnovers are another X-factor. Seattle thrives when they can capitalize on mistakes — a tipped ball, a strip-sack, or even a long return can flip momentum. In the playoffs, these small edges make a huge difference. San Francisco is going to have to stay disciplined, avoid penalties, and protect the football to keep pace.

So how does this game unfold?

Seattle wins if:

• JSN gets open early and forces the 49ers to adjust on the fly.

• Walker and Charbonnet establish the run to keep the offense balanced.

• Darnold manages the game, makes smart throws, and avoids turnovers.

• The defense pressures the QB consistently and keeps McCaffrey in check when he’s not running routes.

San Francisco wins if:

• McCaffrey dominates early and sets the tone with explosive plays.

• Pearsall or Cowing can contribute despite injuries, giving the QB reliable options.

• The O-line protects the QB, allowing time for timing-based passes.

• Their defense can handle Seattle’s balanced attack and force turnovers at key moments.

This matchup will be physical, strategic, and edge-of-your-seat intense from start to finish. Every yard will be earned. Every possession matters. If Seattle executes, balances run and pass, and forces mistakes, they have the edge. But if the 49ers can adjust to injuries and get McCaffrey going, this could be a slugfest that goes down to the wire.

Prediction: This one is going to be close — every yard will be earned, every play will matter. But I see Seattle’s balance, playmakers, and ability to exploit the 49ers’ injury gaps giving them the edge in a hard-fought NFC West clash. They’ll pull out a win, but the 49ers will make them fight for every single yard.

And just like that, the NFC West battle wraps up, leaving us to shift our focus to the AFC, where another pair of intense playoff matchups is ready to take the spotlight. Up next, we’ve got Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos, a clash that is going to test discipline, firepower, and execution at every single level.

Buffalo comes into this matchup riding momentum from their Wild Card win, but even with the win, there are plenty of challenges ahead. Josh Allen, as always, is the centerpiece. He has the ability to create plays on the fly, extend drives with his legs, and make impossible throws when it counts. But the Bills are dealing with injuries — Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers are out, which puts more responsibility on Khalil Shakir, Brandin Cooks, and Keon Coleman to make plays. Allen’s arm talent combined with his athleticism means that even with a thinned-out receiving corps, he can still stretch the field and keep defenses honest.

On the ground, Buffalo’s rushing attack hasn’t been dominant, but it’s been enough to keep defenses honest. James Cook and Ray Davis have chipped in with key gains, though Denver’s front seven is no joke. This is a defense that can collapse the pocket, force hurried throws, and shut down the run if gaps aren’t sealed quickly. Which brings us to Denver — they are disciplined, methodical, and dangerous when it comes to taking away rhythm. Their quarterback, Bo Nix, isn’t Josh Allen, but he’s efficient, poised, and capable of leading long, sustained drives. With weapons like Courtland Suttonand solid role players in the receiving corps, Denver can mix passes and runs to control the clock.

The trenches are where this game is going to be won or lost. Denver’s front seven has been a nightmare all season, leading the league in sacks and consistently forcing quarterbacks into mistakes. Allen thrives under pressure, yes, but if the Broncos can disrupt his timing without overcommitting, it’s going to force tough decisions and could lead to turnovers. On the flip side, if Buffalo can protect Allen, get him time to use his legs, and hit Shakir or Cooks deep, they have a chance to make this a shootout.

Defensively, Buffalo will need to bend but not break. Every pressure from Von Miller, Justin Houston, or the Broncos’ pass rushers will matter. If the Bills can force three-and-outs or get turnovers, it flips momentum. Denver’s disciplined approach to clock management and red-zone efficiency means Buffalo can’t afford mistakes.

Here’s the breakdown:

Buffalo wins if:

• Josh Allen avoids turnovers and uses his legs to extend plays.

• Shakir, Cooks, and Coleman make contested catches and sustain drives.

• The defense bends but doesn’t break, keeping Denver out of easy scoring situations.

Denver wins if:

• Their front seven disrupts Allen’s rhythm and forces quick reads.

• Bo Nix manages the game efficiently, mixing runs and passes to control tempo.

• The secondary tackles in space and avoids giving up big plays.

This game is going to be tense, physical, and dramatic from start to finish. Every third down, every red-zone stand, every possession matters — and in the playoffs, small edges can be the difference between a win and a loss.

Prediction: Denver’s discipline, tempo control, and ability to disrupt timing give them the edge in a gritty Divisional Round battle. Buffalo will fight and make them earn every single yard, but the Broncos move on, continuing their playoff run in a hard-fought, edge-of-your-seat game.

Just like that, the AFC battles continue, and now we turn our attention to Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots — a matchup that will test toughness, strategy, and playoff poise from start to finish.

WOW — this is exactly the kind of game that defines playoff football. Houston comes in riding momentum from their Wild Card demolition of the Steelers, 30–6, and their confidence is sky-high. The Texans’ strength starts with their fearsome defensive front: Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter can collapse the pocket in a flash, forcing hurried throws and disrupting timing on every snap. Derek Stingley Jr. locks down one side of the field with length and physicality, while Jalen Pitre makes plays all over the field and brings a tackling presence that can turn short passes into losses.

Facing this wall of pressure is Drake Maye, coming off a solid 2024 season and a strong MVP-caliber 2025 campaign. As a second-year quarterback, Maye has proven he can make elite reads and distribute the ball effectively, but the Texans’ pass rush is the kind of challenge that tests even the most talented young QBs. Every play is going to be a fight — Campbell and the Patriots’ offensive line must hold their blocks perfectly, because one missed assignment could mean a sack or a turnover.

Maye does have weapons: Stefon Diggs, Kyle Williams, Kayshon Boutte, Hunter Henry, and DeMario Douglas give him multiple routes and options to stretch the field. But Houston’s defensive discipline makes even these stars work for every yard. Stingley can shadow Diggs, Pitre can limit short completions, and the sheer speed and power of Anderson and Hunter will test Maye on every dropback. Even elite talents are challenged when the Texans play with this much aggression and intelligence.

Houston’s offense, led by C.J. Stroud, is just as dangerous. If the Texans can establish the run with Woody Marks and Nick Chubb, they can control the clock, keep Maye off the field, and dictate the game’s tempo. Stroud also has Nico Collins and Christian Kirk to stretch the field and punish coverage breakdowns. The combination of pressure on Maye and explosive offensive playmaking is exactly why Houston has the edge.

Here’s the breakdown:

Houston wins if:

• Anderson and Hunter dominate the trenches and force Maye into quick, uncomfortable throws.

• Stingley and Pitre shut down Diggs, Boutte, or Williams, limiting the Patriots’ offensive rhythm.

• Houston’s offense controls the clock, sustains drives, and capitalizes on every opportunity.

New England wins if:

• Maye gets a clean pocket and hits his top weapons quickly and accurately.

• The Patriots’ run game or short passing game keeps Houston honest.

• They force Houston into mistakes or turnovers at key moments.

This is going to be physical, intense, and edge-of-your-seat football. Every third down matters, every pass rush counts, and every red-zone opportunity could decide the game. Houston’s defensive pressure, combined with Stroud’s offensive firepower and the run game, gives the Texans a clear advantage.

Prediction: The Texans’ defensive dominance and ability to dictate tempo will prove too much for New England. Drake Maye and his weapons will make plays, but the Texans earn the victory in a hard-fought, high-stakes Divisional Round battle. Houston moves on, but the Patriots make them earn every single yard.

After four incredible battles that pushed every team to the limit, the Divisional Round comes to a close, leaving us with four teams that have battled, bled, and earned their way to the next stage. The Rams survived a tight fight in Chicago, the Seahawks took advantage of injuries in San Francisco, the Bills leaned on Josh Allen’s firepower to punch through Denver, and the Texans’ relentless defense earned them a hard-fought victory over the Patriots. Every game had its drama, every play mattered, and every team showed why the playoffs are the ultimate proving ground. Now, the stakes get even higher. Conference Championship weekend is looming, and these four survivors are ready to leave everything on the field for a chance at the Super Bowl. Buckle up — the road to the Lombardi just got real, and every yard, every snap, and every moment will count.